The Air Force Research Laboratory has awarded Kairos Research a Phase 1 SBIR contract to explore the use of large language models (LLMs) for measuring the impact of information operations in contested environments.
Information operations (IO) extend beyond the physical battlefield and include efforts to shape attitudes, beliefs, and opinions, often through the control of narratives— socially and culturally meaningful stories that shape our understanding of events and guide our actions. Such “cognitive warfare” techniques are increasingly employed by our adversaries to undermine the goals and values of the US and its allies. New tools are therefore needed to enable IO operators to better understand, measure, and counter the effects of cognitive warfare.
While there currently exist software tools that can track trending topics and their associated sentiment in the online information environment (e.g., topics trending on social media), these tools fail to illuminate which specific themes and narratives resonate most with which specific subpopulations and why. Also lacking is the ability to simulate how individuals within a given “psychographic” group will react to a particular message or information campaign.
To address these challenges, Kairos Research will develop and evaluate a prototype software tool called PEREGRINE (Prediction of Emic Responses via Generative-AI for Robust Information Environments). According to project lead Dr. Locke Welborn, “LLMs represent a game changer in terms of our ability to rapidly evaluate narratives circulating in online (and offline) spaces. Scalable, automatic toolsets can help characterize how narratives vary over time and across regions. PEREGRINE presents an opportunity to expand our team’s prior work by adding the ability to analyze population responses at a much finer level of geographic and psychographic granularity.”
In addition to more granular analyses, PEREGRINE will allow for simulation of population responses from a first-person perspective, enabling IO operators to understand how a particular population would likely respond to a given messaging campaign. Taken together, these capabilities will achieve a more nuanced understanding of the appeal of certain messages to key audiences in response to emerging events.
The Air Force Research Laboratory, or AFRL, is the primary scientific research and development center for the Department of the Air Force. AFRL plays an integral role in leading the discovery, development and integration of affordable warfighting technologies for our air, space and cyberspace forces. With a workforce spanning across nine technology areas and 40 other operations around the globe, AFRL provides a diverse portfolio of science and technology ranging from fundamental to advanced research and technology development. For more information, visit www.afresearchlab.com.
