Archive for December 2019

C.S. Lewis argued “we can never know what might have been, but what is to come is another matter entirely.” Nevertheless, counterfactual thoughts about “what might have been” are an essential part of everyday reasoning. Intelligence analysts especially rely on counterfactual reasoning to improve future practices following any failures (i.e., to answer the question: “What…

When asked to predict the future, a wise individual from a galaxy far, far away once said, “Difficult to see; always in motion is the future.” What Yoda understood is that the complex and dynamic nature of real-world events requires a sophisticated approach to forecasting. Recently Kairos Research was tapped by Raytheon-BBN Technologies to help…